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Old 11-08-2008, 08:25 PM
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Default The Russian Bear stirs again.

This latest conflict in Georgia seems to be getting a bit disturbing. It is beginning to smell strongly of annexation by Russia. I have a feeling that Russia will take over Georgia and no-one wil be able to do anything about it. That will then mean that Russia controls the only oil pipeline to the West which doesn't go through their own country.

I am concerned that this conflict could escalate and God knows what will happen. The UN can't do anything because Russia can veto anything which it doesn't like and NATO is about as much use as a chocolate tea pot. Anyone got any other comments?

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Russian troops in Georgia advance
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Old 11-08-2008, 08:36 PM
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I fear you are correct. The region (including the UK) is too dependant on Russian Gas to complain too loudly and I fear an American armada steaming up the Black Sea might make matters worse. I also think once the Olympics are over and the eyes of the world focus elsewhere the Chinese will slip back into old habits. Maybe then people might see sense and understand the importance of making the things they need locally.
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Old 12-08-2008, 07:38 AM
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My fear is that we are about to see another 1938 when Germany annexed Austria. That too was done under the guise of "protecting" the Germans who were living in Austria at that time. The truth of the matter was completely different - Hitler wanted to extend his Third Reich by taking Austria into the greater Germany. No-one did anything but "talk" at that time and The League of Nations was another talking shop, much like the UN, and about as much use. Germany had, by 1938, withdrawn from the League of Nations in any event. If Britain and France hadn't stood by their agreement with Poland in 1939 when Germany invaded Poland similar annexations would have taken place piecemeal instead of WW2 getting under way. I see from this morning news that Russian backed rebels in Abkhazia are also now fighting the Georgian forces. BBC NEWS | World | Europe | New Georgia clashes mar UN moves The escalation is only confirming my own fears about this conflict. Just watch Sarkozy come back from his meetings with both Russia and Georgia waving a piece of paper and giving us the French equivalent of "Peace in Our Time".

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Old 12-08-2008, 10:24 AM
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Scary times. I'm surprised that NATO has nothing written in to it that when one of it's member states is the aggressor they can't veto any action to be taken against them.
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Old 12-08-2008, 10:54 AM
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Scary times. I'm surprised that NATO has nothing written in to it that when one of it's member states is the aggressor they can't veto any action to be taken against them.
Georgia had membership of NATO deferred, primarily because of the instability of the area. Russia, of course, doesn't belong to NATO and doesn't want Georgia to join either thereby increasing the NATO influence in the Caucasus.

Reading the various reports on the internet doesn't give a very clear picture of who was responsible for this conflict. Georgia seems to have attacked Tskhinval after some, unproved, attacks on its forces. Russia says she is protecting her citizens (read passport holders) and her "peace keepers" (read Russian Troops). There is a feeling in some parts, not only Russian or symathisers, but other areas, that the Georgian President took advantage of the worlds eyes being on the Olympics to attack the "rebels" in South Ossetia.

One British Correspondent, whose reference I have lost, has said "Hitting a Bear on the nose isn't a good idea unless it is tied down." and I can see why.
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Old 12-08-2008, 10:57 AM
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Do I mean the UN then? There is something Russia is a part of that could take action but can't because Russia has veto rights
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Old 12-08-2008, 11:28 AM
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Just in ..

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Russia 'ends Georgia operation'
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Old 12-08-2008, 05:18 PM
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Do I mean the UN then? There is something Russia is a part of that could take action but can't because Russia has veto rights
It is the UN Adam. Russia is one of the permanent members of the Security Council and can veto anything which it doesn't like. This makes taking any positive action against Russia impossible to do. I understand that the Russian Peace Keepers in Ossetia were there with UN approval. However, unlike Peace Keepers from other countries who are in similar places of discontent, the Russians tend to shoot first and ask questions afterwards. You may remember UN Peace Keepers from other European countries, who have been fired on by some malcontented group or other, who have not got into a fire fight and have retired rather than shoot.

I wonder how far the Russians will move back now the conflict looks set to stop? Not very far if past experiences are anything to go by.

It reminds me of some advice my father gave to me, he said: "It is easier to make enemies than friends." Oh how true!
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